Three games coexist in the hottest printing and pa

2022-08-16
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Printing and packaging industry: three major games coexist, looking for opportunities inside and outside the cycle

the profits of printing and packaging industry depend on three major games: growth and cycle, government and market, cost and income

game I investment logic for the industry: the printing industry is a growth industry, and the profit is mainly determined by demand; The packaging industry is a cyclical industry, and the profit is mainly determined by the gross profit margin. Game II is the leading factor for the demand of the printing industry: the demand of the three segments of publishing and printing, bill printing and cigarette label printing is led by the market, jointly led by the government and the market, and led by the government respectively. The third game is about the decision mechanism of gross profit rate of packaging industry: the change of gross profit rate depends on the amplitude difference and time point difference of cost and income in the cycle

printing industry: limited growth, optimistic about cigarette labels

publishing and printing demand is dominated by the market, and the growth rate is less than 5%; The demand for bill printing is jointly led by the government and the market, and the growth rate is synchronized with GDP; The demand for cigarette label printing is led by the government, with a growth rate of about 8%. Therefore, this kind of fiber undoubtedly creates unique potential processing opportunities. The investment opportunities of the printing industry come from the demand growth led by the government: first, the development of the lottery market; The second is the integration of the cigarette industry

packaging industry: when the plate rotates and the shell is installed on the printed circuit board, the opportunity is long-lived

the result of the game between cost and income in the cycle is that the gross profit margin of the paper packaging industry mainly comes from the difference of cycle amplitude, while the gross profit margin of the plastic packaging and metal packaging industries mainly comes from the difference of cycle time point. In the short term, defensive varieties of metal packaging and paper packaging have investment opportunities; In the long run, packaging leaders will benefit from industrial chain extension and industry integration

investment suggestions

we give the industry a neutral rating and believe that there are long-term and phased investment opportunities inside and outside the cycle. Long term investment opportunities come from industry integration. It is recommended to pay attention to Yongxin shares and Jinjia shares, and Dongfeng shares and Hongbo shares; The short-term opportunity comes from the cost reduction. We recommend Wanshun shares, Shanghai Lvxin and Lipeng shares

innovation of the report

under the background of complex attributes of the printing and packaging industry and unclear investment logic, we have created a research system to analyze the industry profit and investment logic from the three major games, and carried out a detailed theoretical exposition of the core views. It is strictly necessary to comprehensively consider the efficiency, environmental protection and product quality. I sincerely hope to pass the empirical test found by the analysis

risk tips

the economy fell faster than expected and the price of raw materials rebounded

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